UAE Residential Market Notes
Transaction volumes in Dubai’s AED 5m+ residential real estate market reached record levels in 2023
Transaction volumes growing but are expected to fall
January 11, 2024
In traditional prime* and super-prime* locations, we have seen a slightly different trajectory take place, at least from a transaction volumes perspective. In 2023, the total volume of sales transactions within the prime segment of the market declined by 15.5% compared to the year prior, reaching a total of 1,968. Over this period, within the super-prime segment of the market, the number of transactions stood at 1,003, marking a decline of 3.1% compared to a year earlier. Amongst the communities tracked by CBRE, in 2023,
Palm Jumeirah registered the highest volume of transactions in both the prime and super-prime market segments, with the total number of units sold worth more than AED 5 million standing at 963 and the total number of properties sold above AED 10 million reaching 593, over the same period.
In both the prime and super-prime segments of the market, these slowdowns in activity levels have been primarily underpinned by softening in off-plan sales, whilst secondary market sales registered significant increases. Despite strong levels of demand given the mature nature of prime and super-prime locations, much of the available supply in the market has already been absorbed, and new launches have been very limited in recent months, this backdrop has led to a softening in transaction levels, in 2024, this is something we expect will be the case in the broader AED5m+ and AED 10m+ markets.
Prime and super-prime price growth likely to remain strongAs at Q4 2023, average prices within the prime segment of the market stood at AED 4,604 per square foot, marking an increase of 22.5% from a year earlier. This growth has been underpinned by significant price growth in the likes of Jumeirah Bay Island and District One, where average prices grew by 35.6% and 27.2% year-on-year. More so, in Q4 2023, the average sales value of prime residential assets within the communities that CBRE monitors reached AED 28.3 million.
Looking at the super-prime market segment, average prices registered a growth rate of 20.4% in the year to Q4 2023, reaching AED 4,900 per square foot. Over this period, Jumeirah Bay Island and District One recorded the most significant increases in their average sales rates of 28.5% and 22.4%, respectively. Super-prime units within selected submarkets monitored by CBRE registered average selling prices of AED 34.1 million in the last quarter of the year, supported by high-value transactions on Emirates Hills and Jumeirah Bay Island.
In the year ahead, we expect that given the lack of new supply, price growth in the prime and super-prime segments of the market are likely to remain relatively strong, although we do expect the rate of price growth to taper off somewhat slightly.
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*Notes: Prime and super-prime areas are defined as follows: Downtown Dubai, Emirates Hills, Jumeirah Bay Island, Palm Jumeirah and District One. Prime properties refer to properties sold in these areas for more than AED 5m, and super-prime properties those sold for more than AED 10m.